What Moves the Price of Hardwood (and Why CME Lumber Futures Don't)

People ask whether lumber prices are going down. Usually they've seen a headline about CME lumber futures, or the cost of 2x4s at the big-box.

Those numbers are about softwood — spruce, pine, fir — sold by the truckload to home builders for framing. That's a different product on a different supply chain. Walnut for a tabletop doesn't trade on a futures market. Neither does ash, white oak, cherry, or any of the other species that come off our mill.

Here's what actually moves the price of the wood you'd buy from us.

What you're paying for, line by line

The log itself. Some logs we pay for. Some we trade for the milling. Some come free from a tree service who'd rather not pay to dump it. The price varies by species, size, and how clean it is.

Mill time. A 12-foot log takes about an hour on the bandsaw if it cooperates and longer if it doesn't. Blade wear is real — urban logs hit metal often enough that we keep new blades on hand. The mill minimum is $300 for that reason.

Yard time. Air-drying on stickers takes months to a year. That stack is taking up real estate that isn't generating revenue. The cost of that time gets folded in.

Kiln time. The vacuum kiln runs at 7 to 9 days per inch of thickness. A 2-inch slab is in the kiln for two and a half weeks, drawing power, after a year of air-drying. Custom kiln service runs $1.80 to $3.50 per board foot, depending on species and thickness.

Loss. Some boards crack. Some twist. Some have hidden defects that show up after milling. Real loss on urban hardwood runs higher than on plantation softwood, because the logs are wilder.

What moves those numbers

Tree work in the suburbs. Bad storm season means more logs on offer, which can drop input cost. Quiet weather means we're paying more for the trees that do come down.

Energy. The kiln runs on electricity. The mill runs on diesel and electricity. When utility rates jump, drying gets more expensive.

Labor. We're a small shop. Wages and time are most of the cost. When time gets expensive, wood gets expensive.

Species rarity. Black walnut from a 30-inch urban log is not interchangeable with hard maple from a yard tree. Some species are abundant locally; some only show up a few times a year.

What we don't get to control

Rough import wood. Tariffs and trade policy on Canadian softwood don't change what we charge for Illinois walnut. They do change what your contractor pays for framing.

The Fed. Mortgage rates affect housing starts, which affects framing demand, which affects spruce-pine-fir prices. Our hardwood furniture customers care about something else: whether they want a table.

The honest forecast

We don't know what 2026 hardwood prices look like. Nobody does. What we can tell you is that the price of a slab from us reflects the actual time, energy, and loss that went into making it project-ready. That number doesn't drop because a futures contract dropped.

If anyone is selling you "kiln dried hardwood" significantly cheaper than the going rate, they skipped one of those steps. Usually it's the drying. Sometimes it's the air-drying that's supposed to come before the drying. Either way, you're going to find out, and you're going to find out after you've built something with it.

What the chart on the news doesn't show

Pine 2x4 prices and walnut slab prices are not the same conversation. They're not even the same product. Watch the right number for what you're actually building.